First Palm-Crop Slump Since ’98 Extends Bull Market: Commodities

Palm-oil production in Indonesia, the world’s biggest supplier, is dropping for the first time in 15 years after heavy rains and drought. The decline is spurring a rebound in prices from the lowest level in 45 months.

The country’s output of the most-consumed edible oil will slide 1.9 percent to 26.5 million metric tons this year, according to the median of five grower estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the first drop since 1998, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture which predicts a crop of 28.5 million tons. Deutsche Bank AG says futures traded in Malaysia, a global benchmark, will average 2,800 ringgit ($865) a ton next year, 6.1 percent more than now.

Prices surged 12 percent in October, the most since 2010, and are up 22 percent from this year’s closing low in July. Plantations in Sumatra got almost twice the normal rainfall and a shortened dry season in Kalimantan curbed output after drought in the past two years weakened trees. The commodity is consumed in everything from Nestle SA (NESN) instant noodles to Unilever soaps. McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) uses it for cooking in Asia and South America.

“Bad weather disrupted crops almost all over,” said Asmar Arsjad, 74, a Sumatra farmer and secretary-general of the Indonesia Oil Palm Smallholders Association, which represents about 4 million producers across the 3,300 mile-wide (5,300 kilometers) archipelago. “People expected that production will increase in October. Because of the rain, floods, it dropped.”