Jalatama Artha Berjangka News

Emas menuju penurunan bulanan kelima dalam jangka terpanjang kerugian sejak tahun 1997 karena investor mengurangi kepemilikan oleh lebih dari 100 metrik ton disebabkan kekhawatiran stimulus AS dapat dibatasi karena ekonomi pulih.

Spot emas sedikit berubah pada $ 1,597.50 per ounce pada 9:18 am di Singapura, turun 4 persen pada Februari. Logam mencapai $ 1,555.55 pada 21 Februari, harga terendah sejak Juli, karena beberapa bankir sentral AS mencari fleksibilitas lebih pada stimulus. Aset dalam bullion-yang dibackup produk yang diperdagangkan di bursa merosot ke posisi terendah lima bulan 2,508.53 ton kemarin dan siap turun 4 persen bulan ini, penurunan terbesar sejak April 2008. Dalam hal volume, kepemilikan global telah turun sebesar 103,7 ton bulan ini, lebih dari lima kali penjualan bersih pada bulan Januari.

Bullion masih 1 persen lebih tinggi minggu ini karena volume di Shanghai Gold Exchange naik dan data menunjukkan bahwa Rusia dan Kazakhstan memperluas cadangan emas untuk bulan keempat pada bulan Januari. Ketua Federal Reserve Ben S. Bernanke pertahanan minggu ini pembelian aset bank sentral dan kekacauan politik di Italia setelah pemilu permintaan juga didorong.

"Pasar bullion sekarang berfokus pada penarikan stimulus moneter akhirnya, sebanding dengan tahun lalu, ketika pasar lebih terfokus pada ekspektasi pelonggaran kebijakan moneter lebih lanjut," James Steel, analis HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, menulis dalam sebuah catatan.

Ekuitas Rally

Emas untuk pengiriman April berada di $ 1,597.80 per ounce di Comex di New York dari $ 1,595.70 kemarin. Emas rally selama 12 tahun hingga tahun 2012 karena investor mencari lindung nilai terhadap ekuitas jatuh, mata uang melemah dan inflasi potensial. MSCI All-Country World Index dari ekuitas telah meningkat 4,1 persen tahun ini dan Indeks Standard & Poor dekat rekor.

Emas memiliki "kehilangan momentum" dan bukan lagi aset beli-tahan, menurut Davis Hall, kepala global devisa dan logam mulia penasehat di swasta perbankan Unit Credit Agricole SA. Siklus untuk harga emas mungkin telah berubah sejalan dengan pemulihan AS mendapatkan momentumnya dan jatuhnya kepemilikan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc mengatakan dalam sebuah laporan pada 25 Februari

The euro fell toward a seven-week low against the dollar before Italy sells bonds today after the nation’s inconclusive elections sparked the biggest advance in sovereign yields in 14 months.

The euro is heading for its first monthly loss since July as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi prepares to give a speech in Munich. This week’s vote in Italy produced a hung parliament, creating the risk of another election later this year and a retreat from austerity measures imposed to stem the debt crisis. The euro fell toward a seven-week low against the dollar before Italy sells bonds today after the nation’s inconclusive elections sparked the biggest advance in sovereign yields in 14 months.

 “These Italian elections are further evidence that Europeans are a bit over this whole austerity phase,” said Stan Shamu, a markets strategist with IG Markets Ltd. in Melbourne. “If we continue to see yields -- particularly in Italy -- spike higher, then that would be a further negative for the euro.”

The euro slid 0.1 percent to $1.3047 as of 10:31 a.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, when it fell as low as $1.3018, the least since Jan. 7. The single currency lost 0.4 percent to 119.69 yen. Japan’s currency rose 0.3 percent to 91.72 per dollar after earlier falling as much as 0.3 percent.

The euro is poised to fall 3.9 percent this month, snapping six months of gains.

Pound jatuh ke level terendah sejak Juli 2010 terhadap dolar setelah Moody `s Investors Service memangkas rating kredit AAA Inggris, melemahkan permintaan untuk mata uang negara tersebut.

Sterling jatuh ke level terlemah dalam hampir 16 bulan terhadap euro karena Moody `s mengatakan keputusan didasarkan pada kelemahan dalam prospek pertumbuhan dan hambatan atas rencana pemerintah untuk memotong defisit. Obligasi pemerintah Inggris menguat setelah kandidat Partai Demokrat Pier Luigi Bersani mengatakan adanya meningkatnya risiko dalam pemilu Italia akan memicu permintaan untuk aset yang lebih aman.

"Meskipun waktu downgrade merupakan kejutan, secara keseluruhan pasar telah mengantisipasi perubahan peringkat," kata Ian Stannard, kepala Eropa strategi valuta asing di Morgan Stanley di London. "Dalam beberapa pekan terakhir kami telah melihat status safe haven sterling yang semakin melemah. Setelah reaksi spontan awal ada potensi untuk rebound. "

Pound turun 0,3 persen menjadi $ 1,5119 pada 05:20 waktu London setelah turun ke $ 1,5073, level terendah sejak 13 Juli 2010. Mata uang Inggris turun 0,2 persen menjadi 87.16 pence per euro setelah terdepresiasi sebanyak 1,3 persen menjadi 88,15 pence, terlemah sejak Oktober 28, 2011.

Mata uang Inggris telah melemah 5,8 persen tahun ini, menurut Bloomberg Korelasi-Tertimbang Indeks yang melacak 10 mata uang negara berkembang. Hanya yen telah jatuh lebih, kehilangan 5,9 persen. Pound telah merosot 7 persen pada tahun 2013 terhadap dolar dan 6,9 persen terhadap euro.

(Sumber: Bloomberg)

West Texas Intermediate oil traded near the highest level in two days as China increased fuel prices for the first time since September and Iran prepared for international talks on its nuclear program.

Futures were little changed after climbing the first day in three on Feb. 22. Gasoline in China will rise by 300 yuan ($48) a metric ton and diesel by 290 yuan a ton today, the National Development and Reform Commission said. Iran, which is under a Western embargo on its oil exports, will meet the U.S. and five other nations tomorrow in Almaty, Kazakhstan, after an eight- month lapse.

“There’s not much sign there will be any advancement in the negotiations this week,” Robin Mills, the head of consulting at Dubai-based Manaar Energy Consulting and Project Management, said yesterday. “I’m not hopeful for any deal being reached in Kazakhstan. I haven’t seen any signs the U.S. will offer Iran any sanctions relief.”

WTI for April delivery was at $93.28 a barrel, up 15 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:47 a.m. Sydney time. The contract rose to $93.13 on Feb. 22, the highest since Feb. 20. The volume of all futures traded was 21 percent below the 100-day average. Prices dropped 2.9 percent last week, the most since December.

Brent oil for April settlement climbed 14 cents to $114.24 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $20.96 to WTI futures, from $20.97 on Feb. 22.

(source: Bloomberg)

The euro traded 0.2 percent from the lowest in six weeks against the U.S. dollar before Italy’s parliamentary election starts this weekend.

The 17-nation currency headed for a third weekly loss ahead of the Feb. 24-25 voting, with opinion polls from earlier this month showing former premier Silvio Berlusconi closing a gap with front-runner Pier Luigi Bersani. The yen fell against most of its major peers amid speculation over who will take the reins at the Bank of Japan.

“The Italian election is weighing on the euro,” said Noriaki Murao, managing director of the marketing group at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “If it becomes a close race, it may result in a hung parliament, making it more difficult to push forward with reforms.”

The euro traded little changed at $1.3193 as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, when it touched $1.3161, the lowest since Jan. 10. The shared currency gained 0.2 percent to 123.08 yen, after dropping to 122.26 yesterday, the weakest since Jan. 29. For the week, the euro was set for a 1.3 percent decline versus the greenback and 1.5 percent drop against the yen. The Japanese currency slid 0.2 percent to 93.26 per dollar, still headed for a 0.3 percent gain this week.

(source: Bloomberg)

In the U.S., the index of leading indicators probably rose 0.2 percent in January, a second month of gains, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A Fed report on manufacturing in the Philadelphia area is projected to show a rebound.

‘Gaining Momentum’

“Dollar strength is gradually gaining momentum,” said Marito Ueda, senior managing director in Tokyo at FX Prime Corp. (8711), a currency-margin company. “There are clearer signs of a U.S. economic recovery.”

Some officials on the Federal Open Market Committee “emphasized that the committee should be prepared to vary the pace of asset purchases,” according to the minutes of the FOMC’s Jan. 29-30 meeting released yesterday in Washington.

The U.S. central bank buys about $85 billion of government and mortgage securities a month to support growth, in the third round of quantitative easing that tends to debase the dollar.

In Europe, manufacturing and services industries probably shrank in February, albeit by less than the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The manufacturing purchasing managers index is projected to be 48.5 compared with 47.9 in January, and services PMI may come in at 49.0 from 48.6 a month earlier. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

“The debt crisis in the euro region has eased, but its economic recovery is lagging globally,” said FX Prime’s Ueda. “When the U.S. economy picks up and the dollar’s strength starts to stand out, the euro’s weakness will be highlighted.”

(source: Bloomberg)

West Texas Intermediate crude fluctuated after rising the most in a week as Enterprise Products Partners LP said oil volumes through the Seaway pipeline will climb, helping reduce a glut in the U.S. Midwest.

Futures swung between gains and losses after climbing 0.8 percent in New York yesterday, the most since Feb. 11. Seaway flows will average 295,000 barrels a day between February and May, up from 180,000 barrels in January, said William Ordemann, senior vice president at Enterprise, in Feb. 15 testimony to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. U.S. crude stockpiles probably rose a fifth week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before a government report tomorrow.

WTI for March delivery, which expires today, gained 3 cents to $96.69 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:39 a.m. Sydney time. The contract rose 80 cents to $96.66 yesterday. The more-active April future climbed 3 cents to $97.13. The volume of all futures traded was 58 percent below the 100-day average.

Brent for April settlement gained 14 cents to $117.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The front-month European benchmark grade closed at a premium of $20.42 to WTI futures. The gap expanded to $23.18 on Feb. 8, the widest since Nov. 26.

U.S. crude supplies probably gained 2 million barrels last week, according to the median estimate of nine analysts in a Bloomberg survey. It will be the longest streak of gains since May. Gasoline stockpiles likely fell 900,000 barrels, the Bloomberg survey shows.

(sumber: Bloomberg)

Australia’s dollar gained against most major peers after the country’s central bank said stronger demand from China and an improved global outlook have spurred prices for commodities.

The so-called Aussie also rose against the U.S. dollar ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens’ semi- annual testimony before a parliamentary panel on Feb. 22. New Zealand’s dollar was little changed for a second day, maintaining last week’s advance against the greenback, as swap rates climb in the smaller nation.

“The RBA did acknowledge the better run of international data received between the two meetings and the effect that has had on commodity prices,” said Andrew Salter, a currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney. The Aussie “has caught a bid,” he said.

Australia’s dollar rose 0.1 percent to $1.0320 as of 12:10 p.m. in Sydney from $1.0306 yesterday. It fetched 96.85 yen, little changed from yesterday.

New Zealand’s currency traded little changed at 84.47 U.S. cents and dropped 0.2 percent to 79.27 yen.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Investor memangkas posisi saat reli komoditas, merupakan level tertinggi sejak November dipicu oleh tanda-tanda perbaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS yang berpotensi mengurangi permintaan untuk emas serta hujan di Amerika Selatan yang memberikan tanda-tanda bahwa panen akan lebih besar.

Hedge fund dan spekulan besar lainnya mengurangi net-long posisi di 18 futures AS dan opsi dalam pekan yang berakhir 12 Februari sebesar 15 persen menjadi 757.060 kontrak, penurunan terbesar sejak 13 November, data US Commodity Futures Trading Commission menunjukkan. Posisi pada harga emas yang lebih tinggi jatuh ke level terendah sejak Desember 2008, sementara prediksi untuk  11 barang pertanian merosot paling tajam sejak November 2011.

Harga emas turun 4 persen sejak 31 Desember, terburuk untuk awal tahun sejak 2001, dipicu oleh kenaikan penjualan ritel AS untuk bulan ketiga pada bulan Januari dan kepercayaan konsumen naik lebih dari perkiraan pada bulan Februari. Gabungan produksi kedelai di Argentina dan Brasil akan meningkat dan berpotensi mencetak  rekor dan peningkatan produksi jagung akan membantu mengisi kembali persediaan global setelah kekeringan tahun lalu menyebabkan harga dari kedua tanaman mencapai rekor.

"Sejalan dengan keyakinan atas pemulihan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan secara global, Anda bisa kehilangan posisi keuntungan pada  emas," kata James Paulsen, kepala strategi investasi di Wells Capital Management yang berbasis di Minneapolis, yang mengawasi aset sekitar $ 325.000.000.000. "Komoditas pertanian menurut  saya akan memiliki tahun yang bearish karena cuaca normal."

Standard & Poor GSCI Spot Indeks dari 24 komoditas turun 0,3 persen pekan lalu, dipimpin oleh penurunan perak dan kakao. MSCI All-Country World Index dari ekuitas turun 0,2 persen, sementara dolar naik 0,4 persen terhadap enam mata uang mitra dagang. Treasuries turun 0,1 persen, Indeks Bank of America Corp menunjukkan.

(Sumber: Bloomberg)

Pedagang emas berada pada kondisi paling bearish dalam lebih dari satu tahun di tengah memuncaknya spekulasi bahwa meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dari AS ke China akan menghambat permintaan logam mulia tahun ini.

Dua puluh analis yang disurvei oleh Bloomberg pekan ini mengharapkan harga turun minggu depan, sementara 11 adalah bullish dan tiga yang netral, ini merupakan proporsi bearish tertinggi sejak Desember 30, 2011. Hedge fund memangkas posisi pada harga yang lebih tinggi sebesar 56 persen sejak Oktober dan mendekati akhir masa  bullish pada emas sejak Agustus, data pemerintah menunjukkan. Harga jatuh ke level terendah selama 5 minggu kemarin, dan miliarder investor George Soros dan Louis Moore Bacon dilaporkan mengurangi posisi kepemilikan dalam produk yang diperdagangkan di bursa yang didukung oleh emas.

Harga Emas

Harga turun 2 persen menjadi $ 1,641.88 per ounce di London tahun ini, dan mencapai $ 1,637.95 kemarin, terendah sejak 4 Januari. Emas naik 7,1 persen tahun lalu pada reli tahunan terpanjang dalam setidaknya sembilan dekade. Gauge GSCI Standard & Poor dari 24 komoditas yang naik 5 persen tahun ini dan MSCI All-Country World Index dari ekuitas naik 4,8 persen. Treasuries kehilangan 1,1 persen, Indeks Bank of America Corp menunjukkan.

Penurunan emas disertai dengan keuntungan 0,6 persen untuk perak tahun ini. Platinum dan paladium naik setidaknya 9,4 persen karena kekhawatiran bahwa  pasokan tambang akan berkurang dengan meningkatnya permintaan. Satu ons platinum sebanding dengan 1,054 ons emas kemarin, tertinggi dalam 17 bulan, data yang dikumpulkan oleh Bloomberg menunjukkan. Konsumsi Industri menyumbang sekitar 10 persen dari konsumsi emas batangan, dibandingkan dengan lebih dari setengah untuk tiga logam lainnya.

(Sumber: Bloomberg)