First Palm-Crop Slump Since ’98 Extends Bull Market: Commodities

Posted by jalatama Kamis, 28 November 2013 5 komentar


Palm-oil production in Indonesia, the world’s biggest supplier, is dropping for the first time in 15 years after heavy rains and drought. The decline is spurring a rebound in prices from the lowest level in 45 months.
The country’s output of the most-consumed edible oil will slide 1.9 percent to 26.5 million metric tons this year, according to the median of five grower estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the first drop since 1998, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture which predicts a crop of 28.5 million tons. Deutsche Bank AG says futures traded in Malaysia, a global benchmark, will average 2,800 ringgit ($865) a ton next year, 6.1 percent more than now.
Prices surged 12 percent in October, the most since 2010, and are up 22 percent from this year’s closing low in July. Plantations in Sumatra got almost twice the normal rainfall and a shortened dry season in Kalimantan curbed output after drought in the past two years weakened trees. The commodity is consumed in everything from Nestle SA (NESN) instant noodles to Unilever soaps. McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) uses it for cooking in Asia and South America.
“Bad weather disrupted crops almost all over,” said Asmar Arsjad, 74, a Sumatra farmer and secretary-general of the Indonesia Oil Palm Smallholders Association, which represents about 4 million producers across the 3,300 mile-wide (5,300 kilometers) archipelago. “People expected that production will increase in October. Because of the rain, floods, it dropped.”
(Source: Bloomberg)     

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WTI Oil Drops a Fourth Day as U.S. Crude Inventories Advance

Posted by jalatama Rabu, 27 November 2013 3 komentar
West Texas Intermediate fell for a fourth day after an industry report showed crude supplies rose for a ninth week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer.
Futures slid as much as 0.2 percent in New York. U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday. An Energy Information Administration report today is projected to show stockpiles gained by 750,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. OPEC will keep its production quota unchanged when the group meets next month in Vienna, a separate survey shows.
WTI for January delivery dropped as much as 22 cents to $93.46 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $93.57 at 11:03 a.m. Sydney time. The contract slid 0.4 percent to $93.68 yesterday. The volume of all futures traded was about 63 percent below the 100-day average.
Brent for January settlement declined 12 cents to $110.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark crude ended the session at a premium of $17.20 to WTI, the widest gap in eight months.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reaffirm its collective target of 30 million barrels a day at a meeting next week, according to 18 of 20 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News.
(Source: Bloomberg)


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Yen Rallies as BOJ Member Concerned on CPI Goal; Aussie Advances

Posted by jalatama Selasa, 26 November 2013 2 komentar


 The yen gained against most major peers after Bank of Japan board member Takehiro Sato said today risks for prices are tilted to the downside, adding to concern policy makers may struggle to boost inflation to 2 percent.

The euro held a drop versus the greenback from yesterday before a speech in Berlin from European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen, who has said negative deposit rates are a possible tool. Australia’s dollar advanced after a central bank official said the nation shouldn’t be concerned that home prices are increasing. The yen rose for the first time in four days after Sato’s comments were published in minutes of the last central bank meeting.

BOJ officials are “somewhat tentative and cautious,” said Callum Henderson, the global head of currency research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “Our expectation is for further gradual gains in dollar-yen, but it’ll be a slow grind rather than a dramatic move higher.”

Japan’s currency gained 0.2 percent to 101.44 per dollar as of 9:51 a.m. in Tokyo after reaching 101.92 yesterday, the weakest since May 29. The yen rose 0.2 percent to 137.22 per euro, rebounding from a four-year low. The euro was little changed at $1.3528 from $1.3517 yesterday, when it declined 0.3 percent.

The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, slid 0.1 percent to 1,020.23.

The BOJ said in April it wanted to achieve 2 percent inflation in about two years. Central bank board member Sayuri Shirai proposed adding “attention should be paid to the downside risks” to the bank’s outlook report as “there was a high degree of uncertainty regarding developments in overseas economies and households’ employment and income situation,” the BOJ minutes showed.
(Source: Bloomberg)



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Brent Premium to WTI Reaches Widest Point in Eight Months

Posted by jalatama Senin, 25 November 2013 2 komentar


 West Texas Intermediate’s discount to Brent reached an eight-month high as rising inventories weighed on U.S. futures and limited progress in Iran nuclear negotiations supported the European benchmark.
The spread widened to $16.21 from $14.64 yesterday. WTI declined as rising domestic output added to inventories at record highs for this time of year. Brent reached a six-week high as envoys haggled over language in their efforts to ease the standoff over the atomic ambitions of Iran, whose oil exports have been reduced by sanctions.
WTI for January delivery slid 60 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $94.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after settling yesterday at the highest since Oct. 31. Trading was 12 percent below the 100-day average. WTI’s weekly gain of 1.1 percent was the first since Oct. 4.
Brent for January gained 97 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $111.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest settlement since Oct. 11. Brent has gained 3.9 percent in three days.
The Brent-WTI spread increased for a third day to $16.21, the most since March 14. The gap has expanded by $5.69 in the past two weeks.
(Source: Bloomberg)     

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Gold Falls to Lowest Since July on Federal Reserve Taper Concern

Posted by jalatama Jumat, 22 November 2013 2 komentar


 Gold fell to the lowest since July as investors weighed speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce monthly bond purchases in coming months.
Policy makers expect U.S. economic data will signal further improvement in the labor market and “warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months,” according to minutes of the Fed’s October meeting released yesterday. Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the week ended Nov. 16 declined to the lowest in almost two months, the Labor Department said today.
“The market is convinced that the Fed is ready to start tapering,” Sterling Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Today’s jobless data shows that the economy is improving, and gives people another reason to believe gold will continue to weaken.”
Gold futures for December delivery tumbled 1.1 percent to settle at $1,243.60 an ounce at 1:39 p.m. on the Comex in New York, after dropping to $1,235.80, the lowest for a most-active contract since July 9.
Trading was 70 percent higher than the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Expectations that the Fed will trim its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases pushed gold toward its first annual drop since 2000. Prices have fallen 26 percent this year as some investors lost faith in the precious metal as a store of value.
Gold is still heading for a significant decline in 2014, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report yesterday outlining investment themes for next year. Bullion may drop to $1,050 by the end of the year, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote.
(Source: Bloomberg)

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